Tour de France Predictions


The Tour de France, the pinnacle of olympics professional cycling, consistently captivates fans with its intense competition, dramatic landscapes, and awe-inspiring athleticism. As we look ahead to the 2024 edition, enthusiasts and analysts alike are making their Tour de France predictions, focusing on who will claim the coveted yellow jersey, who will dominate the King of the Mountain (KOM) classification, and who will emerge victorious in the points classification. This article delves into the leading contenders and the dynamics that could shape the race outcomes.

The Tour de France 2024 promises to be a thrilling spectacle, with many familiar faces returning to vie for the top honors. As we make our Tour de France predictions, several key questions arise: Will Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar continue their rivalry for the General Classification (GC)? Who will excel in the mountainous stages to win the KOM classification? And which sprinter will secure the green jersey in the points classification? By examining the latest information and trends, we can anticipate the likely scenarios and standout performers in this year’s race.

General Classification (GC) Predictions

Key Contenders for the Yellow Jersey

The battle for the yellow jersey is always the highlight of the Tour de France. As we make our Tour de France predictions for the GC, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar emerge as the primary contenders. Vingegaard, who has defeated Pogacar in the past two editions, faces a challenging comeback after his severe crash in Itzulia Basque Country, where he suffered multiple injuries. Despite the setback, his training since May indicates he might still be a formidable competitor.

Pogacar, on the other hand, remains a strong favorite due to his consistent performance and ability to recover and excel under pressure. His past victories in the Tour de France have showcased his exceptional talent and resilience.

Potential Surprises

While Vingegaard and Pogacar are the frontrunners, other riders could spring surprises. The likes of Primož Roglič, who has consistently performed well in Grand Tours, and young talents like Remco Evenepoel, could pose significant challenges. The dynamics of the race, including team strategies and unforeseen events, will also play crucial roles in determining the winner of the yellow jersey.


King of the Mountain (KOM) Predictions

Leading Candidates for the Polka Dot Jersey

The KOM classification, awarded to the best climber, is another highly contested category. For our Tour de France predictions in the KOM classification, we note that several former winners will be participating in 2024. These include Warren Barguil (2017), Romain Bardet (2019), Tadej Pogacar (2020 and 2021), Jonas Vingegaard (2022), and Giulio Ciccone (2023).

The competition for the polka dot jersey is expected to be intense, with Pogacar having previously demonstrated his ability to win both the yellow and polka dot jerseys in the same Tour de France. However, many fans hope to see a climber who specializes in aggressive breakaways and mountain stages take the title.

Points Allocation for Climbs

The points awarded for climbs vary depending on the difficulty and categorization of each climb. This system ensures that the most challenging climbs offer the most points, encouraging riders to aim for high-profile summits.

Category1st Place Points2nd Place Points3rd Place Points
Hors Catégorie201715
1st Category151311
2nd Category1098
3rd Category532
4th Category321

Points Classification Predictions

Contenders for the Green Jersey

The points classification, represented by the green jersey, rewards the most consistent sprinter throughout the Tour de France. As we make our Tour de France predictions for the points classification, we anticipate a fierce competition among sprinters. However, with the 2024 Tour featuring more flat stages suitable for bunch sprints, non-climbing sprinters have a better chance to accumulate points.

Jasper Philipsen and Mads Pedersen are expected to be the main contenders for the green jersey. Philipsen’s consistency in previous Grand Tours and Pedersen’s strength in sprints position them as the favorites. Wout van Aert, while focusing on specific stages, could also play a pivotal role, although he is unlikely to compete in all the bunch sprints.

Points Allocation for Stages

The points awarded in the points classification vary based on the stage profile, ensuring that flat stages offer the most points, while hilly and mountainous stages offer fewer.

Stage Type1st Place Points2nd Place Points3rd Place Points4th Place Points5th Place Points6th Place Points7th Place Points8th Place Points9th Place Points10th Place Points
Flat Stages503020181614121087
Hilly Stages302522191715131197
Mountain Stages/TTs2017151311109876
Intermediate Sprints2017151311109876

White Jersey Predictions

Contenders for the Young Rider Classification

The white jersey, awarded to the best young rider under the age of 25, is a significant category that highlights the emerging talent in professional cycling. As we look ahead to the 2024 Tour de France predictions for the young rider classification, several promising cyclists stand out.

Tadej Pogacar, despite his multiple victories in the general classification, is still eligible for the white jersey and remains a top contender. His experience and consistent performance in Grand Tours make him a favorite to win the young rider classification once again.

Remco Evenepoel, the young Belgian sensation, is another strong candidate. Known for his incredible time-trial abilities and climbing prowess, Evenepoel has shown tremendous potential in stage races. His aggressive racing style and determination could see him challenge for the white jersey.

Juan Ayuso, the young Spanish rider from UAE Team Emirates, is also expected to perform well. Ayuso has demonstrated his capabilities in various stage races and is seen as a future star in cycling. Competing alongside experienced teammates, he will have the support needed to aim for the white jersey.

The competition for the white jersey will undoubtedly be intense, with these young talents pushing each other to the limits and possibly even contending for higher overall placements in the race.

Points Allocation for Young Rider Classification

The young rider classification uses the same time-based system as the general classification, meaning the rider under 25 with the lowest cumulative time wins the white jersey. There are no separate points awarded, but the prestige of wearing the white jersey and the recognition of being the best young rider adds a significant motivational factor for these emerging stars.

The 2024 Tour de France promises an exciting battle for the white jersey, with several highly talented young riders vying for the honor. Their performances will not only shape the future of cycling but also add another layer of excitement to this legendary race.


Read More:


Who are the favorites to win Tour de France?

According to Brown, the top favorites to win the General Classification are Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Primož Roglič.

Who has the most stage wins in Tour de France history?

Manx cyclist Mark Cavendish made history at the Tour De France with his 35th stage victory, breaking a 34-win record held by Eddy Merckx, who set it from 1969-1975.

Has a rider won the Tour de France without winning a stage?

Winning the Tour de France without securing a single stage victory, though uncommon, is possible. Futhermore, many people overlook that cycling is a team sport, where one rider on the bike and another on the podium at the end of the day exemplify the collective effort.

Who is the youngest cyclist to win the Tour de France?

Henri Cornet still holds the record as the youngest rider to win the Tour de France. He claimed the yellow jersey in 1904, the race’s second edition, winning by a margin of over two hours.

Summing It Up!

Lastly, the Tour de France 2024 is set to deliver thrilling battles across various classifications, with top cyclists vying for glory in the General Classification, King of the Mountain, and Points Classification categories. Moreover, our Tour de France predictions highlight Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar as the main contenders for the yellow jersey, while a host of talented climbers and sprinters will compete fiercely for the polka dot and green jerseys, respectively.

As the race unfolds, fans can expect surprises, intense rivalries, and moments of sheer brilliance that define the essence of the Tour de France. Whether it’s the dramatic mountain ascents, the high-speed sprints, or the strategic team efforts, the 2024 edition promises to be a captivating showcase of cycling prowess and determination.

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